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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Phil Hawes won · U-DEC

Elo1490

Elo1502

Phil HawesvsKyle DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · Saturday, May 8, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Phil Hawes won

U-DEC

Style matchupPhil Hawes: WrestlervsKyle Daukaus: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Phil Hawes wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Phil Hawes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Hawes at +132 American odds

+$132 profit

$232 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Hawes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Phil Hawes has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Daukaus (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Phil Hawes

Red Corner

Kyle Daukaus

Blue Corner

+132

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-152

(60%)

1490

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil HawesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Curtis · Nov 21

KOvs Deron Winn · Jun 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Oct 22

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · May 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jan 24

latest

Kyle Daukaus

oldest →

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jun 22

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22

KOvs Michel Pereira · Aug 25

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil HawesMetricKyle Daukaus

5.33

Strikes / min

3.32

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

55%

Strike defense

42%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

2.08

90%

Takedown defense

82%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil HawesKyle Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Hawes(7 fights)Kyle Daukaus(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.4|Blue +11.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil HawesTargetKyle Daukaus

By target zone

56% acc · 64%

Head

29% acc · 71%

92% acc · 35%

Body

55% acc · 21%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

67% acc · 7%

By position

58% acc · 50%

Distance

33% acc · 93%

95% acc · 27%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

60% acc · 23%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Hawes rounds

even

Kyle Daukaus rounds

Round 1Phil Hawes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:33

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:56Control

Round 2Phil Hawes edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:35

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 3Phil Hawes edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control4:26

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 101

Sig Strikes

28 / 82

65.7%

Sig Str %

25.3%

157 / 210

Total Strikes

52 / 113

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 7

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:34

Ctrl Time

4:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Daukaus	5 / 21	18 / 37	0 / 2	0
1	Phil Hawes	16 / 22	32 / 39	1 / 2	1
2	Kyle Daukaus	22 / 51	30 / 60	0 / 5	0
2	Phil Hawes	29 / 45	48 / 65	0 / 1	0
3	Kyle Daukaus	1 / 10	4 / 16	0 / 0	0
3	Phil Hawes	21 / 34	77 / 106	1 / 1	0

Phil Hawes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Kyle Daukaus

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8