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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ikram Aliskerov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1546

Phil HawesvsIkram AliskerovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · Saturday, May 6, 2023Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ikram Aliskerov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:10

Style matchupPhil Hawes: WrestlervsIkram Aliskerov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Ikram Aliskerov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ikram Aliskerov at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ikram Aliskerov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ikram Aliskerov is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Phil Hawes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Phil Hawes has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ikram Aliskerov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Phil Hawes

Red Corner

Ikram Aliskerov

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1490

Elo

1546

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil HawesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kyle Daukaus · May 21

KOvs Chris Curtis · Nov 21

KOvs Deron Winn · Jun 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Oct 22

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jan 24

latest

Ikram AliskerovW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Warlley Alves · Oct 23

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jun 24

KOvs Andre Muniz · Apr 25

vs JunYong Park · Oct 25

DECvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil HawesMetricIkram Aliskerov

5.33

Strikes / min

6.86

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

5.47

55%

Strike defense

41%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

3.20

90%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil HawesIkram Aliskerov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Hawes(7 fights)Ikram Aliskerov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.9|Blue +55.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil HawesTargetIkram Aliskerov

By target zone

29% acc · 24%

Head

54% acc · 65%

91% acc · 59%

Body

75% acc · 30%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

61% acc · 100%

Distance

61% acc · 95%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Hawes rounds

even

Ikram Aliskerov rounds

Round 1Ikram Aliskerov edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 28

Sig Strikes

20 / 33

60%

Sig Str %

60%

17 / 28

Total Strikes

20 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ikram Aliskerov	20 / 33	20 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Phil Hawes	17 / 28	17 / 28	0 / 0	0

Phil Hawes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Ikram Aliskerov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6