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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Phil Hawes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1494

Phil HawesvsDeron WinnUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Phil Hawes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:25

Style matchupPhil Hawes: WrestlervsDeron Winn: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Phil Hawes wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Phil Hawes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Hawes at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Hawes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Phil Hawes has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Phil Hawes has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Hawes

Red Corner

Deron Winn

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1490

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'6"

195.58 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil HawesL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kyle Daukaus · May 21

KOvs Chris Curtis · Nov 21

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Oct 22

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · May 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jan 24

latest

Deron Winn

oldest →

vs Eric Spicely · Jun 19

vs Darren Stewart · Oct 19

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 20

vs Antonio Arroyo · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil HawesMetricDeron Winn

5.33

Strikes / min

4.55

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

6.21

55%

Strike defense

46%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

4.28

90%

Takedown defense

40%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61Δ 3.27 — meaningful gap-1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil HawesDeron Winn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Hawes(7 fights)Deron Winn(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -322.0|Blue +322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil HawesTargetDeron Winn

By target zone

65% acc · 84%

Head

24% acc · 75%

81% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 13%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

64% acc · 75%

Distance

29% acc · 91%

78% acc · 12%

Clinch

27% acc · 9%

79% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Hawes rounds

even

Deron Winn rounds

Round 1Phil Hawes edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Phil Hawes edged it

Sig. strikes63

Takedowns1

Control0:43

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

118 / 175

Sig Strikes

32 / 111

67%

Sig Str %

30%

126 / 191

Total Strikes

34 / 114

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Deron Winn	17 / 44	17 / 44	0 / 0
1	Phil Hawes	55 / 87	56 / 88	0 / 0
2	Deron Winn	15 / 67	17 / 70	0 / 0
2	Phil Hawes	63 / 88	70 / 103	1 / 3

Phil Hawes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Deron Winn

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5