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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Curtis won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1492

Phil HawesvsChris CurtisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Chris Curtis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupPhil Hawes: WrestlervsChris Curtis: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Phil Hawes wins(76.8%)

Actual result: Chris Curtis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Hawes at -335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Hawes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Curtis is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Phil Hawes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Phil Hawes has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Hawes

Red Corner

Chris Curtis

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1490

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil HawesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kyle Daukaus · May 21

KOvs Deron Winn · Jun 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Oct 22

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · May 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jan 24

latest

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil HawesMetricChris Curtis

5.33

Strikes / min

5.52

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

5.75

55%

Strike defense

54%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

0.00

90%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil HawesChris Curtis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Hawes(7 fights)Chris Curtis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil HawesTargetChris Curtis

By target zone

38% acc · 50%

Head

56% acc · 71%

83% acc · 31%

Body

63% acc · 24%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

54% acc · 96%

Distance

55% acc · 86%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Hawes rounds

even

Chris Curtis rounds

Round 1Phil Hawes edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 90

Sig Strikes

21 / 36

53%

Sig Str %

58%

49 / 91

Total Strikes

22 / 37

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Curtis	21 / 36	22 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Phil Hawes	48 / 90	49 / 91	0 / 3	0

Phil Hawes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11