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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brunno Ferreira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1504

Phil HawesvsBrunno FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brunno Ferreira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:55

Style matchupPhil Hawes: WrestlervsBrunno Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brunno Ferreira wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Brunno Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brunno Ferreira at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brunno Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Phil Hawes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Phil Hawes has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Phil Hawes has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Hawes

Red Corner

Brunno Ferreira

Blue Corner

+114

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1490

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil HawesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kyle Daukaus · May 21

KOvs Chris Curtis · Nov 21

KOvs Deron Winn · Jun 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Oct 22

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · May 23

latest

Brunno FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Armen Petrosyan · Mar 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Jul 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 25

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Mar 26

DECvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil HawesMetricBrunno Ferreira

5.33

Strikes / min

3.77

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

55%

Strike defense

51%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

1.25

90%

Takedown defense

61%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil HawesBrunno Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Hawes(7 fights)Brunno Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.5|Blue +13.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil HawesTargetBrunno Ferreira

By target zone

44% acc · 62%

Head

47% acc · 95%

57% acc · 31%

Body

0% acc

50% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

50% acc · 92%

Distance

45% acc · 79%

33% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

57% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Hawes rounds

even

Brunno Ferreira rounds

Round 1Brunno Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:37Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 27

Sig Strikes

19 / 43

48%

Sig Str %

44%

13 / 28

Total Strikes

24 / 49

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brunno Ferreira	19 / 43	24 / 49	1 / 4	0
1	Phil Hawes	13 / 27	13 / 28	0 / 1	0

Phil Hawes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Brunno Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10