Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Lineker won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Elo1492
John Lineker

Phil HarrisvsJohn LinekerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · Saturday, October 26, 2013Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

John Lineker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:51

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(64.6%)

Actual result: John Lineker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Phil Harris has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Harris
Red Corner
VS
John Lineker
Blue Corner
+375
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-420
(81%)
1353
Elo
1492
42
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'3"
165.1 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil Harris
oldest →
L
SUBvs Darren Uyenoyama · Oct 12
W
vs Ulysses Gomez · Feb 13
L
vs Neil Seery · Jul 14
latest
John Lineker
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Oct 16
L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16
W
vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil HarrisMetricJohn Lineker
2.34
Strikes / min
5.36
3.16
Strikes absorbed / min
4.27
68%
Strike defense
56%
1.76
TDs / 15 min
0.56
60%
Takedown defense
67%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1530Strikes21.5 vs 57.8Takedowns1.5 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 0.8
Phil HarrisJohn Lineker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Phil Harris(4 fights)John Lineker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.2|Blue +138.2
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -3.6|Blue +3.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil HarrisTargetJohn Lineker

By target zone

13
35% acc · 93%
Head
18
40% acc · 58%
1
100% acc · 7%
Body
10
50% acc · 32%
0
Leg
3
100% acc · 10%

By position

14
38% acc · 100%
Distance
26
44% acc · 84%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
50% acc · 6%
0
Ground
3
60% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Phil Harris rounds
0
even
1
John Lineker rounds
Round 1John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
3Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
3
14 / 38
Sig Strikes
31 / 68
36%
Sig Str %
45%
14 / 38
Total Strikes
34 / 71
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Lineker31 / 6834 / 710 / 00
1Phil Harris14 / 3814 / 380 / 00

Phil Harris

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16