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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Phil Davis won · SUB R2
Elo1490
Elo1352
Wagner Prado

Phil DavisvsWagner PradoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Phil Davis won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:29

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Phil Davis has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Phil Davis has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Wagner Prado (53.5%).
  • Phil Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Davis
Red Corner
VS
Wagner Prado
Blue Corner
-355
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+320
(24%)
1490
Elo
1352
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil Davis
oldest →
W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13
W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13
L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14
W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14
L
vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15
latest
Wagner Prado
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ildemar Alcantara · Jan 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil DavisMetricWagner Prado
2.85
Strikes / min
1.72
1.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
72%
Strike defense
50%
2.99
TDs / 15 min
0.00
72%
Takedown defense
22%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.52Δ 2.86 — meaningful gap-1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1542 vs 1500Strikes35.9 vs 2.0Takedowns2.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.57 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.0
Phil DavisWagner Prado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Phil Davis(10 fights)Wagner Prado(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.5|Blue -138.5
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -47.4|Blue +47.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil DavisTargetWagner Prado

By target zone

16
48% acc · 55%
Head
0
0% acc
11
85% acc · 38%
Body
2
100% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 7%
Leg
0

By position

3
21% acc · 10%
Distance
1
10% acc · 50%
5
83% acc · 17%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 50%
21
72% acc · 72%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Phil Davis rounds
0
even
0
Wagner Prado rounds
Round 1Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns3
Control3:09
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control2:43
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
29 / 49
Sig Strikes
2 / 11
59%
Sig Str %
18%
59 / 82
Total Strikes
2 / 11
5 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
83%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:52
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Wagner Prado1 / 51 / 50 / 00
1Phil Davis15 / 2326 / 363 / 30
2Wagner Prado1 / 61 / 60 / 00
2Phil Davis14 / 2633 / 462 / 32

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11

Wagner Prado

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2