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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Phil Davis won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
Elo1352
Vinny Magalhaes

Phil DavisvsVinny MagalhaesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Phil Davis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Phil Davis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Davis
Red Corner
VS
Vinny Magalhaes
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
1490
Elo
1352
41
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil Davis
oldest →
W
SUBvs Wagner Prado · Oct 12
W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13
L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14
W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14
L
vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15
latest
Vinny Magalhaes
oldest →
W
SUBvs Igor Pokrajac · Sep 12
L
KOvs Anthony Perosh · Aug 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil DavisMetricVinny Magalhaes
2.85
Strikes / min
2.14
1.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.97
72%
Strike defense
68%
2.99
TDs / 15 min
1.55
72%
Takedown defense
66%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.52Δ 3.35 — meaningful gap-1.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1557 vs 1518Strikes35.0 vs 17.7Takedowns2.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.67Form0.5 vs 1.0
Phil DavisVinny Magalhaes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Phil Davis(10 fights)Vinny Magalhaes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.0|Blue -138.0
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil DavisTargetVinny Magalhaes

By target zone

72
28% acc · 91%
Head
14
11% acc · 48%
5
38% acc · 6%
Body
1
17% acc · 3%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
14
61% acc · 48%

By position

77
29% acc · 97%
Distance
29
19% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Phil Davis rounds
0
even
0
Vinny Magalhaes rounds
Round 1Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:13
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 2Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:28
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:12
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
79 / 268
Sig Strikes
29 / 151
28.7%
Sig Str %
19%
83 / 272
Total Strikes
30 / 152
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 3
0%
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:53
Ctrl Time
0:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vinny Magalhaes11 / 6212 / 631 / 10
1Phil Davis32 / 9733 / 980 / 00
2Vinny Magalhaes10 / 4310 / 430 / 10
2Phil Davis26 / 9427 / 950 / 10
3Vinny Magalhaes8 / 468 / 460 / 10
3Phil Davis21 / 7723 / 790 / 00

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11

Vinny Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3