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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Phil Davis won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1371

Phil DavisvsTim BoetschUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Phil Davis won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:55

Style matchupPhil Davis: WrestlervsTim Boetsch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at -485 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Davis has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Phil Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Davis

Red Corner

Tim Boetsch

Blue Corner

-485

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1490

Elo

1371

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil Davis

oldest →

vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13

vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13

vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14

vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14

vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15

latest

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil DavisMetricTim Boetsch

2.85

Strikes / min

2.93

1.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

72%

Strike defense

57%

2.99

TDs / 15 min

1.45

72%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.52Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil DavisTim Boetsch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Davis(10 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.1|Blue -119.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil DavisTargetTim Boetsch

By target zone

25% acc · 30%

Head

25% acc · 43%

60% acc · 45%

Body

50% acc · 14%

80% acc · 24%

Leg

60% acc · 43%

By position

40% acc · 42%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

70% acc · 21%

Clinch

0% acc

40% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Davis rounds

even

Tim Boetsch rounds

Round 1Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control2:22

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:23

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 75

Sig Strikes

7 / 19

43.5%

Sig Str %

37.5%

51 / 98

Total Strikes

10 / 22

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:45

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Boetsch	5 / 14	6 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Phil Davis	29 / 66	44 / 86	1 / 1	1
2	Tim Boetsch	2 / 5	4 / 7	0 / 0	1
2	Phil Davis	4 / 9	7 / 12	1 / 1	1

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20