← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Bader won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Phil DavisvsRyan BaderUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · Saturday, January 24, 2015Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPhil Davis: WrestlervsRyan Bader: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Davis

Red Corner

Ryan Bader

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil Davis

oldest →

SUBvs Wagner Prado · Oct 12

vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13

vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13

vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14

vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14

latest

Ryan BaderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil DavisMetricRyan Bader

2.85

Strikes / min

2.82

1.33

Strikes absorbed / min

1.39

72%

Strike defense

71%

2.99

TDs / 15 min

3.37

72%

Takedown defense

80%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.52evenly matched on net striking+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil DavisRyan Bader

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Davis(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil DavisTargetRyan Bader

By target zone

13% acc · 31%

Head

19% acc · 73%

54% acc · 43%

Body

40% acc · 15%

60% acc · 26%

Leg

60% acc · 12%

By position

25% acc · 83%

Distance

21% acc · 92%

46% acc · 17%

Clinch

25% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Davis rounds

even

Ryan Bader rounds

Round 1Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:25

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:03

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 129

Sig Strikes

26 / 117

25.3%

Sig Str %

21.7%

51 / 145

Total Strikes

29 / 120

0 / 9

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan Bader	5 / 42	5 / 42	0 / 0
1	Phil Davis	9 / 40	9 / 40	0 / 2
2	Ryan Bader	6 / 23	7 / 24	0 / 2
2	Phil Davis	7 / 33	20 / 46	0 / 3
3	Ryan Bader	15 / 52	17 / 54	1 / 1
3	Phil Davis	19 / 56	22 / 59	0 / 4

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16