Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Phil Davis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1387

Phil DavisvsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Phil Davis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Davis has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Phil Davis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Davis

Red Corner

Rogerio Nogueira

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1490

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil Davis

oldest →

vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13

vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13

vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14

vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14

vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15

latest

Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18

KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19

vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil DavisMetricRogerio Nogueira

2.85

Strikes / min

2.43

1.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

72%

Strike defense

59%

2.99

TDs / 15 min

0.64

72%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.52Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil DavisRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Davis(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.6|Blue -103.6

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil DavisTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

27% acc · 43%

Head

13% acc · 88%

70% acc · 38%

Body

0% acc

73% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

26% acc · 40%

Distance

15% acc · 100%

83% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 48%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Davis rounds

even

Rogerio Nogueira rounds

Round 1Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:39

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control2:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:30

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 101

Sig Strikes

8 / 54

39.7%

Sig Str %

13.7%

72 / 143

Total Strikes

16 / 68

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

44%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rogerio Nogueira	5 / 24	5 / 24	0 / 0
1	Phil Davis	12 / 31	19 / 38	0 / 5
2	Rogerio Nogueira	2 / 22	2 / 22	0 / 0
2	Phil Davis	21 / 44	38 / 70	2 / 3
3	Rogerio Nogueira	1 / 8	9 / 22	0 / 0
3	Phil Davis	9 / 26	15 / 35	2 / 3

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12