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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1481

Phil BaronivsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC 125: Resolution · Saturday, January 1, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:20

Style matchupPhil Baroni: Well-roundedvsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Phil Baroni wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Baroni at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Tavares has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brad Tavares has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Baroni

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1490

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil BaroniNo prior UFC fights on record.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil BaroniMetricBrad Tavares

2.77

Strikes / min

3.41

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

40%

Strike defense

54%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

0.70

60%

Takedown defense

80%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil BaroniBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Baroni(1 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.4|Blue -9.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil BaroniTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

55% acc · 55%

Head

65% acc · 68%

100% acc · 36%

Body

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

40% acc · 18%

Distance

73% acc · 36%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

80% acc · 36%

88% acc · 64%

Ground

60% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Baroni rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:49

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 16

Sig Strikes

22 / 31

68%

Sig Str %

70%

23 / 29

Total Strikes

25 / 34

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:49

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brad Tavares	22 / 31	25 / 34	0 / 3	0
1	Phil Baroni	11 / 16	23 / 29	0 / 0	1

Phil Baroni

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights1

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28