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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Petr Yan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1532

Elo1518

Petr YanvsSong YadongUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Petr Yan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPetr Yan: Pressure fightervsSong Yadong: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Petr Yan wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Petr Yan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Petr Yan at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Petr Yan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Petr Yan (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Petr Yan

Red Corner

Song Yadong

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1532

Elo

1518

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Petr YanW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Oct 22

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Mar 23

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Nov 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Jul 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 25

latest

Song Yadong

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Simon · Apr 23

vs Chris Gutierrez · Dec 23

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 25

vs Sean O'Malley · Jan 26

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Petr YanMetricSong Yadong

5.16

Strikes / min

4.42

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

59%

Strike defense

55%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.78

86%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92evenly matched on net striking+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Petr YanSong Yadong

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Petr Yan(10 fights)Song Yadong(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.5|Blue -14.5

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Petr YanTargetSong Yadong

By target zone

48% acc · 69%

Head

48% acc · 83%

71% acc · 22%

Body

60% acc · 10%

90% acc · 9%

Leg

60% acc · 7%

By position

51% acc · 87%

Distance

48% acc · 92%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

83% acc · 6%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Petr Yan rounds

even

Song Yadong rounds

Round 1Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control0:33

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 3Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control1:14

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 183

Sig Strikes

86 / 172

55%

Sig Str %

50%

129 / 217

Total Strikes

104 / 192

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 8

44.3%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:47

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Song Yadong	20 / 37	22 / 40	1 / 2
1	Petr Yan	22 / 35	23 / 36	0 / 1
2	Song Yadong	31 / 66	40 / 75	0 / 4
2	Petr Yan	41 / 77	61 / 98	1 / 1
3	Song Yadong	35 / 69	42 / 77	0 / 2
3	Petr Yan	36 / 71	45 / 83	1 / 3

Petr Yan

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Song Yadong

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17