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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Malley won · S-DEC R3

Elo1532

Elo1533

Petr YanvsSean O'MalleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPetr Yan: Pressure fightervsSean O'Malley: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at +240 American odds

+$240 profit

$340 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Petr Yan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Petr Yan has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Sean O'Malley has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Petr Yan

Red Corner

Sean O'Malley

Blue Corner

-285

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1532

Elo

1533

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'11"

170.18 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Petr YanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Mar 23

vs Song Yadong · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Nov 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Jul 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 25

latest

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Petr YanMetricSean O'Malley

5.16

Strikes / min

6.05

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

59%

Strike defense

60%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.24

86%

Takedown defense

60%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap+2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Petr YanSean O'Malley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Petr Yan(10 fights)Sean O'Malley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Petr YanTargetSean O'Malley

By target zone

42% acc · 41%

Head

48% acc · 75%

72% acc · 22%

Body

43% acc · 7%

100% acc · 36%

Leg

88% acc · 18%

By position

58% acc · 81%

Distance

51% acc · 95%

83% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

67% acc · 10%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Petr Yan rounds

even

Sean O'Malley rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:10

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns3

Control2:42

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control1:52

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 96

Sig Strikes

84 / 163

59.7%

Sig Str %

51%

97 / 139

Total Strikes

91 / 171

6 / 13

TDs

0 / 1

53.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:44

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean O'Malley	23 / 55	23 / 55	0 / 1
1	Petr Yan	19 / 31	28 / 41	1 / 3
2	Sean O'Malley	21 / 37	22 / 39	0 / 0
2	Petr Yan	24 / 39	45 / 62	3 / 3
3	Sean O'Malley	40 / 71	46 / 77	0 / 0
3	Petr Yan	15 / 26	24 / 36	2 / 7

Petr Yan

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14