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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R5

Elo1532

Elo1542

Petr YanvsMerab DvalishviliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupPetr Yan: Pressure fightervsMerab Dvalishvili: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(79.0%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at +210 American odds

+$210 profit

$310 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Petr Yan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Petr Yan (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Petr Yan

Red Corner

Merab Dvalishvili

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1532

Elo

1542

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Petr YanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Oct 22

vs Song Yadong · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Nov 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Jul 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 25

latest

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Petr YanMetricMerab Dvalishvili

5.16

Strikes / min

4.42

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

59%

Strike defense

54%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

5.97

86%

Takedown defense

76%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92evenly matched on net striking+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Petr YanMerab Dvalishvili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Petr Yan(10 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.3|Blue +10.3

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Petr YanTargetMerab Dvalishvili

By target zone

39% acc · 55%

Head

35% acc · 62%

84% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 24%

95% acc · 24%

Leg

81% acc · 14%

By position

50% acc · 88%

Distance

129

41% acc · 88%

82% acc · 12%

Clinch

69% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Petr Yan rounds

even

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:32

35Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:27

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 4Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:47

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 5Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:04

37Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

2:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 143

Sig Strikes

147 / 338

51.8%

Sig Str %

41.8%

87 / 155

Total Strikes

202 / 401

1 / 5

TDs

11 / 49

20%

TD %

22.8%

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

6:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Merab Dvalishvili	22 / 62	35 / 81	1 / 8
1	Petr Yan	13 / 25	20 / 32	0 / 1
2	Merab Dvalishvili	35 / 80	41 / 86	3 / 7
2	Petr Yan	18 / 35	21 / 38	1 / 1
3	Merab Dvalishvili	15 / 46	22 / 53	1 / 14
3	Petr Yan	8 / 27	9 / 28	0 / 1
4	Petr Yan	21 / 31	21 / 31	0 / 1
4	Merab Dvalishvili	38 / 75	51 / 88	1 / 8
5	Merab Dvalishvili	37 / 75	53 / 93	5 / 12
5	Petr Yan	15 / 25	16 / 26	0 / 1

Petr Yan

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17