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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Petr Yan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1532

Elo1528

Petr YanvsMarcus McGheeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Petr Yan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPetr Yan: Pressure fightervsMarcus McGhee: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Petr Yan wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Petr Yan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Petr Yan at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Petr Yan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Marcus McGhee enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Petr Yan (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Petr Yan

Red Corner

Marcus McGhee

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1532

Elo

1528

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Petr YanW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Oct 22

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Mar 23

vs Song Yadong · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Nov 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 25

latest

Marcus McGheeW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Journey Newson · Apr 23

KOvs JP Buys · Aug 23

KOvs Gaston Bolanos · Jan 24

vs Jonathan Martinez · Nov 24

DECvs John Yannis · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Petr YanMetricMarcus McGhee

5.16

Strikes / min

5.50

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

59%

Strike defense

57%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.31

86%

Takedown defense

90%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92evenly matched on net striking+1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Petr YanMarcus McGhee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Petr Yan(10 fights)Marcus McGhee(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.9|Blue -3.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Petr YanTargetMarcus McGhee

By target zone

52% acc · 78%

Head

34% acc · 69%

83% acc · 12%

Body

44% acc · 13%

67% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 19%

By position

51% acc · 72%

Distance

38% acc · 97%

72% acc · 28%

Clinch

40% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Petr Yan rounds

even

Marcus McGhee rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control3:11

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 146

Sig Strikes

64 / 170

56%

Sig Str %

37.3%

130 / 202

Total Strikes

66 / 173

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 4

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:11

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcus McGhee	22 / 55	23 / 57	0 / 0
1	Petr Yan	22 / 43	24 / 45	0 / 0
2	Marcus McGhee	34 / 93	35 / 94	0 / 2
2	Petr Yan	33 / 64	37 / 69	0 / 0
3	Marcus McGhee	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 2
3	Petr Yan	26 / 39	69 / 88	1 / 3

Petr Yan

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Marcus McGhee

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7