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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Petr Yan won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1532

Elo1493

Petr YanvsJose AldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Petr Yan won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 3:24

Style matchupPetr Yan: Pressure fightervsJose Aldo: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Petr Yan wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Petr Yan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Petr Yan at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Petr Yan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Petr Yan (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Petr Yan

Red Corner

Jose Aldo

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1532

Elo

1493

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Petr YanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Mar 23

vs Song Yadong · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Nov 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Jul 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 25

latest

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Petr YanMetricJose Aldo

5.16

Strikes / min

3.65

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

59%

Strike defense

60%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.47

86%

Takedown defense

92%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap-0.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Petr YanJose Aldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Petr Yan(10 fights)Jose Aldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.9|Blue -38.9

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Petr YanTargetJose Aldo

By target zone

150

59% acc · 77%

Head

39% acc · 46%

80% acc · 18%

Body

72% acc · 34%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

81% acc · 20%

By position

49% acc · 51%

Distance

53% acc · 98%

82% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

89% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Petr Yan rounds

even

Jose Aldo rounds

Round 1Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:39

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns1

Control1:05

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes62

Takedowns0

Control3:06

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

194 / 309

Sig Strikes

83 / 157

60.8%

Sig Str %

61.4%

258 / 376

Total Strikes

83 / 157

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:50

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jose Aldo	14 / 39	14 / 39	0 / 1
1	Petr Yan	33 / 55	34 / 56	0 / 0
2	Jose Aldo	24 / 41	24 / 41	0 / 0
2	Petr Yan	16 / 42	16 / 42	0 / 0
3	Jose Aldo	29 / 49	29 / 49	0 / 0
3	Petr Yan	39 / 72	39 / 72	0 / 0
4	Petr Yan	44 / 72	56 / 86	1 / 2
4	Jose Aldo	15 / 27	15 / 27	0 / 0
5	Jose Aldo	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0
5	Petr Yan	62 / 68	113 / 120	0 / 0

Petr Yan

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23