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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Aljamain Sterling won · DQ

Elo1532

Elo1524

Petr YanvsAljamain SterlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

Style matchupPetr Yan: Pressure fightervsAljamain Sterling: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Petr Yan wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Petr Yan at -122 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Petr Yan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Petr Yan has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Petr Yan (52.9%).
Aljamain Sterling has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Petr Yan

Red Corner

Aljamain Sterling

Blue Corner

-122

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1532

Elo

1524

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Petr YanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Mar 23

vs Song Yadong · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Nov 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Jul 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 25

latest

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Petr YanMetricAljamain Sterling

5.16

Strikes / min

4.26

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.15

59%

Strike defense

59%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

2.54

86%

Takedown defense

44%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap+2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Petr YanAljamain Sterling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Petr Yan(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.9|Blue -7.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Petr YanTargetAljamain Sterling

By target zone

50% acc · 56%

Head

26% acc · 41%

88% acc · 24%

Body

72% acc · 44%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

88% acc · 14%

By position

60% acc · 74%

Distance

38% acc · 81%

67% acc · 14%

Clinch

93% acc · 13%

77% acc · 12%

Ground

56% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Petr Yan rounds

even

Aljamain Sterling rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:17

Knockdowns1

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:25

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 3Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns3

Control0:49

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 4Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control0:41

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 137

Sig Strikes

97 / 230

63%

Sig Str %

42.8%

103 / 157

Total Strikes

119 / 260

7 / 7

TDs

1 / 17

100%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:12

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aljamain Sterling	27 / 74	34 / 83	1 / 3
1	Petr Yan	14 / 21	14 / 22	2 / 2
2	Petr Yan	10 / 16	24 / 31	1 / 1
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 / 36	24 / 46	0 / 5
3	Aljamain Sterling	29 / 58	34 / 65	0 / 5
3	Petr Yan	30 / 53	32 / 56	3 / 3
4	Aljamain Sterling	24 / 62	27 / 66	0 / 4
4	Petr Yan	32 / 47	33 / 48	1 / 1

Petr Yan

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23