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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Peter Sobotta won · SUB R1
Elo1387
Elo1356

Peter SobottavsSteve KennedyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · Saturday, June 20, 2015Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Peter Sobotta won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:57

Model Prediction: Peter Sobotta wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Peter Sobotta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Peter Sobotta at -370 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Peter Sobotta has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Peter Sobotta has 77pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Peter Sobotta (53.5%).
  • Peter Sobotta has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Peter Sobotta
Red Corner
VS
Steve Kennedy
Blue Corner
-370
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+310
(24%)
1387
Elo
1356
39
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Peter SobottaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Kyle Noke · Nov 15
W
vs Nicolas Dalby · Sep 16
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18
L
vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 20
latest
Steve Kennedy
oldest →
L
vs Richard Walsh · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Peter SobottaMetricSteve Kennedy
2.14
Strikes / min
2.28
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
5.52
58%
Strike defense
45%
1.53
TDs / 15 min
2.51
77%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.76Δ 2.48 — meaningful gap-3.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1500Strikes28.5 vs —Takedowns1.5 vs —Sub Atts0.50 vs —Form0.9 vs 0.0
Peter SobottaSteve Kennedy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Peter Sobotta(9 fights)Steve Kennedy(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +31.1|Blue -31.1
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red -48.7|Blue +48.7
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Peter SobottaTargetSteve Kennedy

By target zone

2
22% acc · 33%
Head
1
14% acc · 33%
2
100% acc · 33%
Body
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 33%
Leg
2
67% acc · 67%

By position

6
46% acc · 100%
Distance
3
25% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Peter Sobotta rounds
0
even
0
Steve Kennedy rounds
Round 1Peter Sobotta edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control1:20
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 13
Sig Strikes
3 / 12
46%
Sig Str %
25%
7 / 14
Total Strikes
3 / 12
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:20
Ctrl Time
0:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Steve Kennedy3 / 123 / 120 / 10
1Peter Sobotta6 / 137 / 142 / 21

Peter Sobotta

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9

Steve Kennedy

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2