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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Peter Sobotta won · U-DEC R3
Elo1387
Elo1490

Peter SobottavsPawel PawlakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Peter Sobotta won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Peter Sobotta wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Peter Sobotta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Peter Sobotta at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Peter Sobotta (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Peter Sobotta
Red Corner
VS
Pawel Pawlak
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
1387
Elo
1490
39
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Peter SobottaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Kyle Noke · Nov 15
W
vs Nicolas Dalby · Sep 16
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18
L
vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 20
latest
Pawel Pawlak
oldest →
W
vs Sheldon Westcott · Apr 15
L
vs Leon Edwards · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Peter SobottaMetricPawel Pawlak
2.14
Strikes / min
1.67
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
2.22
58%
Strike defense
53%
1.53
TDs / 15 min
1.00
77%
Takedown defense
70%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.76evenly matched on net striking-0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1463 vs 1500Strikes22.3 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.67 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Peter SobottaPawel Pawlak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Peter Sobotta(9 fights)Pawel Pawlak(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -103.6|Blue +103.6
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.8|Blue +48.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Peter SobottaTargetPawel Pawlak

By target zone

18
26% acc · 38%
Head
11
16% acc · 52%
15
83% acc · 32%
Body
2
40% acc · 10%
14
100% acc · 30%
Leg
8
80% acc · 38%

By position

38
41% acc · 81%
Distance
21
25% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
0
8
100% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Peter Sobotta rounds
0
even
0
Pawel Pawlak rounds
Round 1Peter Sobotta edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Peter Sobotta edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control4:32
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Peter Sobotta edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control3:26
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
47 / 101
Sig Strikes
21 / 84
54.3%
Sig Str %
21%
121 / 180
Total Strikes
65 / 128
3 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
75%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
7:58
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Pawel Pawlak13 / 4613 / 460 / 00
1Peter Sobotta29 / 6829 / 680 / 00
2Pawel Pawlak1 / 926 / 340 / 00
2Peter Sobotta10 / 1234 / 391 / 10
3Pawel Pawlak7 / 2926 / 480 / 00
3Peter Sobotta8 / 2158 / 732 / 40

Peter Sobotta

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9

Pawel Pawlak

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3