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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Peter Sobotta won · U-DEC R3

Elo1387

Elo1508

Peter SobottavsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Saturday, September 3, 2016Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Peter Sobotta won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nicolas Dalby wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Peter Sobotta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nicolas Dalby at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Peter Sobotta has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Peter Sobotta (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Peter Sobotta

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1387

Elo

1508

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Peter SobottaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Steve Kennedy · Jun 15

KOvs Kyle Noke · Nov 15

KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17

KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18

vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 20

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Peter SobottaMetricNicolas Dalby

2.14

Strikes / min

3.88

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

58%

Strike defense

52%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

0.90

77%

Takedown defense

59%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.76Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Peter SobottaNicolas Dalby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Peter Sobotta(9 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -121.4|Blue +121.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +148.0|Blue -148.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Peter SobottaTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

43% acc · 74%

Head

18% acc · 50%

83% acc · 13%

Body

57% acc · 29%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

60% acc · 21%

By position

48% acc · 55%

Distance

20% acc · 64%

Clinch

60% acc · 21%

53% acc · 45%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Peter Sobotta rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Peter Sobotta edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control4:06

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Peter Sobotta edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:23

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Peter Sobotta edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:53

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 76

Sig Strikes

14 / 52

45.7%

Sig Str %

21.7%

83 / 127

Total Strikes

48 / 87

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

66.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:22

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nicolas Dalby	1 / 8	8 / 15	0 / 1	0
1	Peter Sobotta	22 / 38	42 / 62	0 / 0	1
2	Nicolas Dalby	2 / 9	19 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Peter Sobotta	5 / 15	29 / 41	2 / 2	0
3	Nicolas Dalby	11 / 35	21 / 45	0 / 0	0
3	Peter Sobotta	11 / 23	12 / 24	1 / 3	0

Peter Sobotta

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14