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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Peter Sobotta won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1387

Elo1379

Peter SobottavsBen SaundersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · Sunday, May 28, 2017Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Peter Sobotta won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:29

Model Prediction: Ben Saunders wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Peter Sobotta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Saunders at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Saunders enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Peter Sobotta (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Peter Sobotta

Red Corner

Ben Saunders

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1387

Elo

1379

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Peter SobottaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Steve Kennedy · Jun 15

KOvs Kyle Noke · Nov 15

vs Nicolas Dalby · Sep 16

KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18

vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 20

latest

Ben SaundersL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Peter SobottaMetricBen Saunders

2.14

Strikes / min

3.23

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

58%

Strike defense

51%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

0.20

77%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.76evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Peter SobottaBen Saunders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Peter Sobotta(9 fights)Ben Saunders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.0|Blue -8.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +134.0|Blue -134.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Peter SobottaTargetBen Saunders

By target zone

44% acc · 87%

Head

20% acc · 47%

50% acc · 2%

Body

41% acc · 37%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

43% acc · 16%

By position

46% acc · 78%

Distance

23% acc · 74%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

56% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Peter Sobotta rounds

even

Ben Saunders rounds

Round 1Peter Sobotta edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:02

Knockdowns2

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Peter Sobotta edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 97

Sig Strikes

19 / 68

48%

Sig Str %

26%

50 / 102

Total Strikes

23 / 74

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ben Saunders	14 / 43	18 / 49	0 / 0
1	Peter Sobotta	27 / 61	31 / 66	0 / 0
2	Ben Saunders	5 / 25	5 / 25	0 / 0
2	Peter Sobotta	19 / 36	19 / 36	0 / 0

Peter Sobotta

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14