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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Pedro Munhoz won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1488

Elo1490

Pedro MunhozvsMatt HobarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Pedro Munhoz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47

Style matchupPedro Munhoz: Pressure fightervsMatt Hobar: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Pedro Munhoz wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Pedro Munhoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pedro Munhoz at -295 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pedro Munhoz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Pedro Munhoz has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hobar (53.5%).
Matt Hobar has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Munhoz

Red Corner

Matt Hobar

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1488

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pedro MunhozL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Dec 21

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 23

vs Marlon Vera · Aug 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24

latest

Matt Hobar

oldest →

vs Aaron Phillips · Aug 14

vs Sergio Pettis · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pedro MunhozMetricMatt Hobar

5.38

Strikes / min

3.23

6.29

Strikes absorbed / min

4.27

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

3.66

82%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91evenly matched on net striking-1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pedro MunhozMatt Hobar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)Matt Hobar(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pedro MunhozTargetMatt Hobar

By target zone

59% acc · 96%

Head

10% acc · 29%

25% acc · 4%

Body

50% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 57%

By position

46% acc · 67%

Distance

20% acc · 71%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pedro Munhoz rounds

even

Matt Hobar rounds

Round 1Pedro Munhoz edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control0:31

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 43

Sig Strikes

7 / 27

55%

Sig Str %

25%

27 / 46

Total Strikes

7 / 27

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Hobar	7 / 27	7 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Pedro Munhoz	24 / 43	27 / 46	2 / 2	1

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights20

Matt Hobar

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3