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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Dominick Cruz won · U-DEC R3
Elo1488
Pedro Munhoz
Elo1495

Pedro MunhozvsDominick CruzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Cruz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPedro Munhoz: Pressure fightervsDominick Cruz: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Dominick Cruz wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Dominick Cruz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Cruz at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Pedro Munhoz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Dominick Cruz has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Munhoz
Red Corner
VS
Dominick Cruz
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1488
Elo
1495
39
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
165.1 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pedro MunhozL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jose Aldo · Aug 21
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 23
L
vs Marlon Vera · Aug 23
L
vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24
latest
Dominick Cruz
oldest →
W
vs Urijah Faber · Jun 16
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20
W
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pedro MunhozMetricDominick Cruz
5.38
Strikes / min
3.91
6.29
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
55%
Strike defense
70%
0.48
TDs / 15 min
2.82
82%
Takedown defense
83%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.91Δ 2.21 — meaningful gap+1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1554 vs 1573Strikes5.3 vs 3.9Takedowns0.5 vs 2.8Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.10Form-0.3 vs 0.4
Pedro MunhozDominick Cruz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)Dominick Cruz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -154.0|Blue +154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pedro MunhozTargetDominick Cruz

By target zone

45
35% acc · 61%
Head
79
33% acc · 77%
10
63% acc · 14%
Body
13
57% acc · 13%
19
73% acc · 26%
Leg
11
100% acc · 11%

By position

73
43% acc · 99%
Distance
100
37% acc · 97%
1
50% acc · 1%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 2%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Pedro Munhoz rounds
1
even
2
Dominick Cruz rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:10
Knockdowns1
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:03Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
43Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
74 / 170
Sig Strikes
103 / 274
43.7%
Sig Str %
39.3%
79 / 175
Total Strikes
105 / 276
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 9
0%
TD %
16.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:10
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dominick Cruz25 / 5125 / 511 / 20
1Pedro Munhoz21 / 4526 / 500 / 00
2Dominick Cruz35 / 11335 / 1130 / 20
2Pedro Munhoz27 / 5727 / 570 / 10
3Dominick Cruz43 / 11045 / 1120 / 50
3Pedro Munhoz26 / 6826 / 680 / 00

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights20

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10