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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Pedro Munhoz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1508

Pedro MunhozvsChris GutierrezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Pedro Munhoz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPedro Munhoz: Pressure fightervsChris Gutierrez: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Chris Gutierrez wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Pedro Munhoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Gutierrez at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pedro Munhoz enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Pedro Munhoz has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Munhoz

Red Corner

Chris Gutierrez

Blue Corner

+176

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1488

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pedro MunhozL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Aug 21

vs Dominick Cruz · Dec 21

vs Marlon Vera · Aug 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24

latest

Chris Gutierrez

oldest →

vs Alatengheili · Oct 23

vs Song Yadong · Dec 23

vs Quang Le · Aug 24

vs John Castaneda · Apr 25

vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pedro MunhozMetricChris Gutierrez

5.38

Strikes / min

4.40

6.29

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

55%

Strike defense

63%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

0.30

82%

Takedown defense

67%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap+1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pedro MunhozChris Gutierrez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.1|Blue +19.1

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +336.0|Blue -336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pedro MunhozTargetChris Gutierrez

By target zone

19% acc · 33%

Head

43% acc · 39%

32% acc · 10%

Body

73% acc · 10%

67% acc · 57%

Leg

74% acc · 51%

By position

33% acc · 87%

Distance

58% acc · 97%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

54% acc · 12%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pedro Munhoz rounds

even

Chris Gutierrez rounds

Round 1Pedro Munhoz edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:51

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:03

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 174

Sig Strikes

77 / 133

33.3%

Sig Str %

57.3%

74 / 188

Total Strikes

79 / 135

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Gutierrez	14 / 23	16 / 25	0 / 0
1	Pedro Munhoz	10 / 32	20 / 42	0 / 0
2	Chris Gutierrez	24 / 47	24 / 47	0 / 0
2	Pedro Munhoz	20 / 59	20 / 59	0 / 0
3	Chris Gutierrez	39 / 63	39 / 63	0 / 0
3	Pedro Munhoz	30 / 83	34 / 87	0 / 1

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights20

Chris Gutierrez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14