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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Pedro Munhoz won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1488

Elo1369

Pedro MunhozvsBryan CarawayUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Friday, November 30, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pedro Munhoz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:39

Style matchupPedro Munhoz: Pressure fightervsBryan Caraway: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Pedro Munhoz wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Pedro Munhoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pedro Munhoz at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pedro Munhoz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Munhoz

Red Corner

Bryan Caraway

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1488

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pedro MunhozL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Dec 21

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 23

vs Marlon Vera · Aug 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24

latest

Bryan Caraway

oldest →

SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 14

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pedro MunhozMetricBryan Caraway

5.38

Strikes / min

2.53

6.29

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

2.57

82%

Takedown defense

80%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91evenly matched on net striking-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pedro MunhozBryan Caraway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.4|Blue -119.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pedro MunhozTargetBryan Caraway

By target zone

53% acc · 69%

Head

39% acc · 90%

100% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 5%

82% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

57% acc · 77%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

57% acc · 11%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pedro Munhoz rounds

even

Bryan Caraway rounds

Round 1Pedro Munhoz edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 58

Sig Strikes

20 / 48

60%

Sig Str %

41%

38 / 62

Total Strikes

21 / 49

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Caraway	20 / 48	21 / 49	0 / 5	0
1	Pedro Munhoz	35 / 58	38 / 62	0 / 0	0

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights20

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10