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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Victor Hugo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1498

Pedro FalcaovsVictor HugoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Saturday, April 6, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Victor Hugo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPedro Falcao: WrestlervsVictor Hugo: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Victor Hugo wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Victor Hugo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Victor Hugo at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Victor Hugo has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Falcao

Red Corner

Victor Hugo

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1485

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pedro Falcao

oldest →

vs Victor Henry · Apr 25

latest

Victor Hugo

oldest →

vs Farid Basharat · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pedro FalcaoMetricVictor Hugo

3.21

Strikes / min

3.27

3.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.95

50%

Strike defense

56%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

0.81

66%

Takedown defense

73%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pedro FalcaoVictor Hugo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pedro Falcao(2 fights)Victor Hugo(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.9|Blue +12.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pedro FalcaoTargetVictor Hugo

By target zone

33% acc · 64%

Head

40% acc · 46%

50% acc · 14%

Body

70% acc · 31%

82% acc · 21%

Leg

94% acc · 24%

By position

38% acc · 86%

Distance

51% acc · 84%

60% acc · 14%

Clinch

92% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pedro Falcao rounds

even

Victor Hugo rounds

Round 1Pedro Falcao edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Victor Hugo edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:50

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Victor Hugo edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:55

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 106

Sig Strikes

68 / 124

43.7%

Sig Str %

53%

58 / 128

Total Strikes

84 / 148

1 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

8.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:10

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Victor Hugo	12 / 26	21 / 35	0 / 0
1	Pedro Falcao	11 / 18	21 / 32	1 / 4
2	Victor Hugo	24 / 45	27 / 54	0 / 0
2	Pedro Falcao	14 / 36	16 / 38	0 / 5
3	Victor Hugo	32 / 53	36 / 59	0 / 0
3	Pedro Falcao	17 / 52	21 / 58	0 / 4

Pedro Falcao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights2

Victor Hugo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2