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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Poliana Botelho won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1426

Pearl GonzalezvsPoliana BotelhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Saturday, October 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Poliana Botelho won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Pearl Gonzalez wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Poliana Botelho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pearl Gonzalez at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Poliana Botelho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Poliana Botelho has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Pearl Gonzalez

Red Corner

Poliana Botelho

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1362

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pearl Gonzalez

oldest →

SUBvs Cynthia Calvillo · Apr 17

latest

Poliana BotelhoL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cynthia Calvillo · Nov 18

vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 19

vs Gillian Robertson · Oct 20

vs Luana Carolina · May 21

SUBvs Karine Silva · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pearl GonzalezMetricPoliana Botelho

2.23

Strikes / min

2.90

4.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

0.85

Takedown defense

76%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.84Δ 1.94 — meaningful gap+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pearl GonzalezPoliana Botelho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pearl Gonzalez(2 fights)Poliana Botelho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.2|Blue +64.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pearl GonzalezTargetPoliana Botelho

By target zone

15% acc · 15%

Head

59% acc · 66%

83% acc · 19%

Body

76% acc · 28%

72% acc · 67%

Leg

80% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 74%

Distance

35% acc · 22%

88% acc · 26%

Clinch

84% acc · 78%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pearl Gonzalez rounds

even

Poliana Botelho rounds

Round 1Poliana Botelho edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control3:21

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Poliana Botelho edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control3:11

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Poliana Botelho edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control3:37

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 58

Sig Strikes

67 / 105

46.7%

Sig Str %

62.3%

89 / 124

Total Strikes

157 / 212

0 / 15

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

10:09

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Poliana Botelho	29 / 43	49 / 66	0 / 0
1	Pearl Gonzalez	12 / 19	32 / 40	0 / 4
2	Poliana Botelho	14 / 28	44 / 65	0 / 0
2	Pearl Gonzalez	4 / 20	22 / 40	0 / 5
3	Poliana Botelho	24 / 34	64 / 81	1 / 1
3	Pearl Gonzalez	11 / 19	35 / 44	0 / 6

Pearl Gonzalez

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Poliana Botelho

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7