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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Payton Talbott won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1535
Elo1488

Payton TalbottvsYanis GhemmouriUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Payton Talbott won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:19

Model Prediction: Payton Talbott wins(86.3%)

Actual result: Payton Talbott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Payton Talbott at -1750 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Payton Talbott has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Payton Talbott has 77pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Payton Talbott
Red Corner
VS
Yanis Ghemmouri
Blue Corner
-1750
(95%)
Vegas Odds
+850
(11%)
1535
Elo
1488
27
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Payton TalbottW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Nick Aguirre · Nov 23
W
KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24
L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 25
W
vs Felipe Lima · Jun 25
W
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 25
latest
Yanis Ghemmouri
oldest →
L
KOvs William Gomis · Sep 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Payton TalbottMetricYanis Ghemmouri
6.62
Strikes / min
2.29
3.41
Strikes absorbed / min
5.14
46%
Strike defense
35%
0.78
TDs / 15 min
0.00
77%
Takedown defense
0%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.21Δ 6.06 — meaningful gap-2.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1485Strikes8.4 vs 2.3Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Payton TalbottYanis Ghemmouri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Payton Talbott(6 fights)Yanis Ghemmouri(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +46.9|Blue -46.9
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Payton TalbottTargetYanis Ghemmouri

By target zone

12
100% acc · 92%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

4
100% acc · 31%
Distance
1
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
9
100% acc · 69%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Payton Talbott rounds
0
even
0
Yanis Ghemmouri rounds
Round 1Payton Talbott edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
13 / 13
Sig Strikes
1 / 2
100%
Sig Str %
50%
13 / 13
Total Strikes
1 / 2
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yanis Ghemmouri1 / 21 / 20 / 00
1Payton Talbott13 / 1313 / 130 / 00

Payton Talbott

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6

Yanis Ghemmouri

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2