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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raoni Barcelos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1535

Elo1550

Payton TalbottvsRaoni BarcelosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Raoni Barcelos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPayton Talbott: Well-roundedvsRaoni Barcelos: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Payton Talbott wins(76.9%)

Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Payton Talbott at -1200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Payton Talbott enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Raoni Barcelos enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Raoni Barcelos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Payton Talbott

Red Corner

Raoni Barcelos

Blue Corner

-1200

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+750

(12%)

1535

Elo

1550

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Payton TalbottW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Nick Aguirre · Nov 23

KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24

KOvs Yanis Ghemmouri · Jun 24

vs Felipe Lima · Jun 25

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 25

latest

Raoni BarcelosW4 streak

oldest →

vs Kyler Phillips · Aug 23

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Payton TalbottMetricRaoni Barcelos

6.62

Strikes / min

4.65

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

46%

Strike defense

60%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

2.51

77%

Takedown defense

87%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.21Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Payton TalbottRaoni Barcelos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Payton Talbott(6 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.9|Blue +14.9

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Payton TalbottTargetRaoni Barcelos

By target zone

53% acc · 80%

Head

73% acc · 95%

100% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 3%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

55% acc · 76%

Distance

60% acc · 29%

70% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

71% acc · 10%

Ground

78% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Payton Talbott rounds

even

Raoni Barcelos rounds

Round 1Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:51Control

Round 2Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 3Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:25

37Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 84

Sig Strikes

62 / 85

71%

Sig Str %

73.3%

59 / 95

Total Strikes

91 / 115

1 / 1

TDs

8 / 15

100%

TD %

59.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

9:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Raoni Barcelos	8 / 11	19 / 23	3 / 4	1
1	Payton Talbott	2 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
2	Raoni Barcelos	17 / 22	23 / 28	3 / 8	0
2	Payton Talbott	25 / 44	26 / 45	0 / 0	0
3	Raoni Barcelos	37 / 52	49 / 64	2 / 3	1
3	Payton Talbott	22 / 38	31 / 47	1 / 1	0

Payton Talbott

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15