Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Payton Talbott won · SUB R3

Elo1535

Elo1482

Payton TalbottvsNick AguirreUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Payton Talbott won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:58

Model Prediction: Payton Talbott wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Payton Talbott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Payton Talbott at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Payton Talbott has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (54.1%).
Nick Aguirre has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Payton Talbott

Red Corner

Nick Aguirre

Blue Corner

-900

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1535

Elo

1482

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Payton TalbottW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24

KOvs Yanis Ghemmouri · Jun 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 25

vs Felipe Lima · Jun 25

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 25

latest

Nick Aguirre

oldest →

vs Dan Argueta · Jan 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Payton TalbottMetricNick Aguirre

6.62

Strikes / min

0.73

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

46%

Strike defense

45%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

1.16

77%

Takedown defense

33%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.21Δ 5.37 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Payton TalbottNick Aguirre

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Payton Talbott(6 fights)Nick Aguirre(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.9|Blue -52.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Payton TalbottTargetNick Aguirre

By target zone

48% acc · 79%

Head

36% acc · 80%

80% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 43%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

62% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Payton Talbott rounds

even

Nick Aguirre rounds

Round 1Nick Aguirre edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:50Control

Round 2Payton Talbott edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control3:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Payton Talbott edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:25

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 53

Sig Strikes

5 / 12

51.7%

Sig Str %

35%

58 / 90

Total Strikes

18 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:25

Ctrl Time

5:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nick Aguirre	0 / 3	13 / 20	1 / 4	0
1	Payton Talbott	1 / 2	5 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Nick Aguirre	4 / 5	4 / 5	1 / 4	0
2	Payton Talbott	15 / 29	39 / 57	0 / 0	0
3	Nick Aguirre	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 2	0
3	Payton Talbott	12 / 22	14 / 26	0 / 0	1

Payton Talbott

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Nick Aguirre

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2