← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Payton Talbott won · U-DEC R3

Elo1535

Elo1504

Payton TalbottvsFelipe LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Payton Talbott won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPayton Talbott: Well-roundedvsFelipe Lima: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Payton Talbott wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Payton Talbott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Payton Talbott at +146 American odds

+$146 profit

$246 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Lima has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Payton Talbott

Red Corner

Felipe Lima

Blue Corner

+146

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-174

(64%)

1535

Elo

1504

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Payton Talbott

oldest →

SUBvs Nick Aguirre · Nov 23

KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24

KOvs Yanis Ghemmouri · Jun 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 25

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 25

latest

Felipe LimaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 24

vs Miles Johns · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Payton TalbottMetricFelipe Lima

6.62

Strikes / min

2.86

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

46%

Strike defense

64%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

2.18

77%

Takedown defense

85%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.21Δ 3.26 — meaningful gap-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Payton TalbottFelipe Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Payton Talbott(6 fights)Felipe Lima(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.8|Blue -30.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Payton TalbottTargetFelipe Lima

By target zone

47% acc · 81%

Head

35% acc · 65%

71% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 23%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

75% acc · 12%

By position

40% acc · 63%

Distance

40% acc · 81%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

75% acc · 12%

87% acc · 34%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Payton Talbott rounds

even

Felipe Lima rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:43

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 2Payton Talbott edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:52

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Payton Talbott edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:14

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 118

Sig Strikes

26 / 58

50%

Sig Str %

44.3%

97 / 165

Total Strikes

37 / 70

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 15

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

4:49

Ctrl Time

3:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe Lima	10 / 20	17 / 27	1 / 5
1	Payton Talbott	14 / 26	22 / 36	0 / 1
2	Felipe Lima	9 / 20	11 / 22	1 / 5
2	Payton Talbott	21 / 46	35 / 62	0 / 0
3	Felipe Lima	7 / 18	9 / 21	1 / 5
3	Payton Talbott	24 / 46	40 / 67	0 / 0

Payton Talbott

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Felipe Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3