Welterweight

3 Rounds

Pawel Pawlak won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Pawel PawlakvsSheldon WestcottUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2015Krakow, Poland

Official fight result

Pawel Pawlak won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Pawel Pawlak wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Pawel Pawlak wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pawel Pawlak at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pawel Pawlak has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Pawel Pawlak has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sheldon Westcott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Pawel Pawlak

Red Corner

Sheldon Westcott

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pawel PawlakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · May 14

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 15

latest

Sheldon Westcott

oldest →

KOvs Elias Theodorou · Apr 14

KOvs Edgar Garcia · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pawel PawlakMetricSheldon Westcott

1.67

Strikes / min

2.26

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

53%

Strike defense

37%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

3.23

70%

Takedown defense

14%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55evenly matched on net striking-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pawel PawlakSheldon Westcott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pawel Pawlak(3 fights)Sheldon Westcott(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -45.0|Blue +45.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pawel PawlakTargetSheldon Westcott

By target zone

38% acc · 50%

Head

25% acc · 35%

74% acc · 47%

Body

53% acc · 59%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

25% acc · 27%

Distance

20% acc · 18%

80% acc · 53%

Clinch

47% acc · 82%

75% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pawel Pawlak rounds

even

Sheldon Westcott rounds

Round 1Sheldon Westcott edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:08

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:37Control

Round 2Pawel Pawlak edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:58

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:02Control

Round 3Pawel Pawlak edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:01

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 60

Sig Strikes

17 / 45

53.7%

Sig Str %

34.3%

77 / 113

Total Strikes

38 / 70

3 / 4

TDs

3 / 11

83.3%

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:07

Ctrl Time

10:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sheldon Westcott	11 / 23	16 / 30	2 / 6
1	Pawel Pawlak	8 / 11	31 / 36	1 / 1
2	Sheldon Westcott	3 / 13	16 / 27	0 / 3
2	Pawel Pawlak	13 / 29	18 / 35	1 / 2
3	Sheldon Westcott	3 / 9	6 / 13	1 / 2
3	Pawel Pawlak	9 / 20	28 / 42	1 / 1

Pawel Pawlak

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Sheldon Westcott

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3