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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Siyar Bahadurzada won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1354

Elo1377

Paulo ThiagovsSiyar BahadurzadaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · Saturday, April 14, 2012Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Siyar Bahadurzada won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:42

Style matchupPaulo Thiago: Submission grapplervsSiyar Bahadurzada: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Paulo Thiago wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Siyar Bahadurzada wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paulo Thiago at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paulo Thiago enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Paulo Thiago has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Thiago

Red Corner

Siyar Bahadurzada

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1354

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo ThiagoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12

vs Michel Prazeres · May 13

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13

vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14

vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14

latest

Siyar BahadurzadaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Mar 16

KOvs Rob Wilkinson · Sep 17

KOvs Luan Chagas · Apr 18

vs Curtis Millender · Dec 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo ThiagoMetricSiyar Bahadurzada

1.71

Strikes / min

2.91

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

63%

Strike defense

49%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

1.32

63%

Takedown defense

62%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo ThiagoSiyar Bahadurzada

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Siyar Bahadurzada(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.0|Blue +23.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo ThiagoTargetSiyar Bahadurzada

By target zone

0% acc

Head

75% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

75% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Thiago rounds

even

Siyar Bahadurzada rounds

Round 1Siyar Bahadurzada edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 2

Sig Strikes

3 / 4

Sig Str %

75%

0 / 2

Total Strikes

3 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Siyar Bahadurzada	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Paulo Thiago	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Siyar Bahadurzada

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8