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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Spencer won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1358

Paulo ThiagovsSean SpencerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · Saturday, September 13, 2014Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Sean Spencer won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaulo Thiago: Submission grapplervsSean Spencer: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Paulo Thiago wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Sean Spencer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paulo Thiago at +215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Spencer enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean Spencer (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Thiago

Red Corner

Sean Spencer

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1354

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo ThiagoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12

vs Michel Prazeres · May 13

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13

vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14

latest

Sean SpencerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Nov 13

vs Alex Garcia · Mar 14

vs Cathal Pendred · Jan 15

KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 16

SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo ThiagoMetricSean Spencer

1.71

Strikes / min

4.24

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

63%

Strike defense

60%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.14

63%

Takedown defense

68%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo ThiagoSean Spencer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Sean Spencer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.3|Blue +4.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo ThiagoTargetSean Spencer

By target zone

26% acc · 69%

Head

34% acc · 73%

64% acc · 25%

Body

65% acc · 21%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

30% acc · 89%

Distance

33% acc · 75%

80% acc · 11%

Clinch

80% acc · 6%

Ground

92% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Thiago rounds

even

Sean Spencer rounds

Round 1Sean Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:10

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:21Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sean Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:31

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:31Control

Round 3Sean Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 111

Sig Strikes

63 / 159

34%

Sig Str %

42.7%

46 / 123

Total Strikes

105 / 202

0 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

4:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Spencer	12 / 32	26 / 47	0 / 1
1	Paulo Thiago	8 / 22	9 / 23	0 / 2
2	Sean Spencer	17 / 30	44 / 57	1 / 1
2	Paulo Thiago	4 / 11	12 / 21	0 / 3
3	Sean Spencer	34 / 97	35 / 98	0 / 0
3	Paulo Thiago	24 / 78	25 / 79	0 / 2

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Sean Spencer

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8