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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Paulo Thiago won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1403

Paulo ThiagovsMichel PrazeresUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Paulo Thiago won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaulo Thiago: Submission grapplervsMichel Prazeres: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Paulo Thiago wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Paulo Thiago wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paulo Thiago at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paulo Thiago enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Paulo Thiago has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Paulo Thiago has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Thiago

Red Corner

Michel Prazeres

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1354

Elo

1403

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

187.96 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo ThiagoL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13

vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14

vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14

latest

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo ThiagoMetricMichel Prazeres

1.71

Strikes / min

2.38

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

63%

Strike defense

57%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

3.94

63%

Takedown defense

47%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo ThiagoMichel Prazeres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Michel Prazeres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo ThiagoTargetMichel Prazeres

By target zone

34% acc · 48%

Head

37% acc · 50%

84% acc · 35%

Body

40% acc · 13%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

92% acc · 37%

By position

34% acc · 43%

Distance

45% acc · 83%

90% acc · 39%

Clinch

67% acc · 13%

62% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Thiago rounds

even

Michel Prazeres rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:03

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 2Paulo Thiago edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:58

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 3Paulo Thiago edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:41

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 92

Sig Strikes

30 / 63

50.7%

Sig Str %

52%

98 / 148

Total Strikes

36 / 72

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 12

50%

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

4:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michel Prazeres	10 / 23	13 / 27	1 / 6
1	Paulo Thiago	16 / 29	21 / 34	0 / 0
2	Michel Prazeres	4 / 6	7 / 11	2 / 2
2	Paulo Thiago	11 / 21	36 / 48	1 / 2
3	Michel Prazeres	16 / 34	16 / 34	0 / 4
3	Paulo Thiago	19 / 42	41 / 66	1 / 2

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14