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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Martin Kampmann won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1352

Paulo ThiagovsMartin KampmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · Saturday, June 12, 2010Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Martin Kampmann won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaulo Thiago: Submission grapplervsMartin Kampmann: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Martin Kampmann wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Martin Kampmann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Kampmann at +198 American odds

+$198 profit

$298 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paulo Thiago enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Martin Kampmann has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Thiago

Red Corner

Martin Kampmann

Blue Corner

-218

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+198

(34%)

1354

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo ThiagoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12

vs Michel Prazeres · May 13

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13

vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14

vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14

latest

Martin KampmannL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Story · Nov 11

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Mar 12

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 12

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Nov 12

KOvs Carlos Condit · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo ThiagoMetricMartin Kampmann

1.71

Strikes / min

3.22

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

63%

Strike defense

62%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

1.86

63%

Takedown defense

78%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo ThiagoMartin Kampmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo ThiagoTargetMartin Kampmann

By target zone

24% acc · 62%

Head

40% acc · 79%

67% acc · 15%

Body

60% acc · 13%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

29% acc · 8%

By position

27% acc · 69%

Distance

32% acc · 58%

40% acc · 15%

Clinch

83% acc · 21%

100% acc · 15%

Ground

56% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Thiago rounds

even

Martin Kampmann rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:59

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:29

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:32Control

Round 3Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:06

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 40

Sig Strikes

24 / 59

31.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

17 / 46

Total Strikes

47 / 83

1 / 9

TDs

1 / 3

6.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

7:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Martin Kampmann	10 / 27	13 / 30	0 / 0	2
1	Paulo Thiago	6 / 18	6 / 18	1 / 5	0
2	Martin Kampmann	6 / 15	9 / 18	0 / 1	0
2	Paulo Thiago	5 / 15	8 / 20	0 / 1	1
3	Martin Kampmann	8 / 17	25 / 35	1 / 2	1
3	Paulo Thiago	2 / 7	3 / 8	0 / 3	0

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Martin Kampmann

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8