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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gasan Umalatov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1356

Paulo ThiagovsGasan UmalatovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Gasan Umalatov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gasan Umalatov wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Gasan Umalatov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gasan Umalatov at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gasan Umalatov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gasan Umalatov has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Thiago

Red Corner

Gasan Umalatov

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1354

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo ThiagoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12

vs Michel Prazeres · May 13

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13

vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14

latest

Gasan UmalatovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Feb 14

vs Cathal Pendred · Oct 14

vs Viscardi Andrade · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo ThiagoMetricGasan Umalatov

1.71

Strikes / min

2.23

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

63%

Strike defense

59%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.75

63%

Takedown defense

90%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo ThiagoGasan Umalatov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Gasan Umalatov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo ThiagoTargetGasan Umalatov

By target zone

27% acc · 55%

Head

33% acc · 63%

72% acc · 31%

Body

33% acc · 13%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

75% acc · 25%

By position

29% acc · 64%

Distance

36% acc · 88%

83% acc · 36%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Thiago rounds

even

Gasan Umalatov rounds

Round 1Gasan Umalatov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:01

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 2Paulo Thiago edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:53

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 3Paulo Thiago edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 110

Sig Strikes

24 / 62

37%

Sig Str %

45%

48 / 119

Total Strikes

46 / 85

1 / 7

TDs

1 / 7

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

4:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gasan Umalatov	10 / 20	11 / 21	0 / 3
1	Paulo Thiago	7 / 28	12 / 34	0 / 0
2	Gasan Umalatov	6 / 10	27 / 31	1 / 1
2	Paulo Thiago	17 / 36	18 / 37	1 / 6
3	Gasan Umalatov	8 / 32	8 / 33	0 / 3
3	Paulo Thiago	18 / 46	18 / 48	0 / 1

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Gasan Umalatov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4