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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Paulo Thiago won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1352

Paulo ThiagovsDavid MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · Saturday, August 27, 2011Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Paulo Thiago won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: David Mitchell wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Paulo Thiago wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Mitchell at +370 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paulo Thiago enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Paulo Thiago has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Thiago

Red Corner

David Mitchell

Blue Corner

-415

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+370

(21%)

1354

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo ThiagoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12

vs Michel Prazeres · May 13

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13

vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14

vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14

latest

David MitchellL2 streak

oldest →

vs TJ Waldburger · Sep 10

vs Simeon Thoresen · Jan 13

KOvs Mike Pierce · Jul 13

vs Yan Cabral · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo ThiagoMetricDavid Mitchell

1.71

Strikes / min

1.74

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.06

63%

Strike defense

55%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.66

63%

Takedown defense

29%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo ThiagoDavid Mitchell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Thiago(9 fights)David Mitchell(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -38.0|Blue +38.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo ThiagoTargetDavid Mitchell

By target zone

22% acc · 68%

Head

14% acc · 61%

50% acc · 16%

Body

17% acc · 4%

75% acc · 16%

Leg

62% acc · 35%

By position

26% acc · 89%

Distance

18% acc · 96%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Thiago rounds

even

David Mitchell rounds

Round 1Paulo Thiago edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:12

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paulo Thiago edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control1:41

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:02

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 69

Sig Strikes

23 / 120

29.7%

Sig Str %

18.3%

30 / 84

Total Strikes

62 / 161

6 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:55

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Mitchell	4 / 26	17 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Paulo Thiago	9 / 17	10 / 19	2 / 2	0
2	David Mitchell	8 / 40	29 / 62	0 / 0	0
2	Paulo Thiago	3 / 25	7 / 31	3 / 3	0
3	David Mitchell	11 / 54	16 / 60	0 / 0	0
3	Paulo Thiago	7 / 27	13 / 34	1 / 1	1

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

David Mitchell

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5