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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Thatch won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1354

Elo1359

Paulo ThiagovsBrandon ThatchUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · Saturday, November 9, 2013Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Brandon Thatch won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:10

Model Prediction: Paulo Thiago wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Brandon Thatch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paulo Thiago at +325 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Thatch enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Paulo Thiago has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Thatch (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Thiago

Red Corner

Brandon Thatch

Blue Corner

+325

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1354

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo ThiagoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12

vs Michel Prazeres · May 13

vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14

vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14

latest

Brandon ThatchL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Edwards · Aug 13

SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Jul 15

SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16

SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo ThiagoMetricBrandon Thatch

1.71

Strikes / min

2.70

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

63%

Strike defense

52%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

1.36

63%

Takedown defense

50%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo ThiagoBrandon Thatch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Brandon Thatch(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.3|Blue +5.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +102.0|Blue -102.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo ThiagoTargetBrandon Thatch

By target zone

33% acc · 80%

Head

35% acc · 58%

100% acc · 20%

Body

83% acc · 42%

Leg

0% acc

By position

13% acc · 20%

Distance

39% acc · 58%

80% acc · 80%

Clinch

38% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Thiago rounds

even

Brandon Thatch rounds

Round 1Brandon Thatch edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:23

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 13

Sig Strikes

12 / 28

38%

Sig Str %

42%

6 / 16

Total Strikes

13 / 30

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Thatch	12 / 28	13 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Paulo Thiago	5 / 13	6 / 16	1 / 2	0

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Brandon Thatch

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6