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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Paulo Costa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1520

Paulo CostavsRoman KopylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Paulo Costa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaulo Costa: Pressure fightervsRoman Kopylov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Paulo Costa wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Roman Kopylov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Costa

Red Corner

Roman Kopylov

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1522

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo Costa

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21

vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22

vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Roman Kopylov

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 24

vs Cesar Almeida · Jun 24

KOvs Chris Curtis · Jan 25

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Nov 25

DECvs Marco Tulio · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo CostaMetricRoman Kopylov

6.15

Strikes / min

4.54

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

49%

Strike defense

53%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

1.12

77%

Takedown defense

88%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo CostaRoman Kopylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Costa(10 fights)Roman Kopylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo CostaTargetRoman Kopylov

By target zone

38% acc · 34%

Head

37% acc · 60%

89% acc · 41%

Body

70% acc · 29%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

62% acc · 88%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Costa rounds

even

Roman Kopylov rounds

Round 1Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 159

Sig Strikes

48 / 104

62%

Sig Str %

45.3%

102 / 162

Total Strikes

48 / 104

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roman Kopylov	11 / 27	11 / 27	0 / 0
1	Paulo Costa	34 / 54	37 / 57	0 / 0
2	Roman Kopylov	16 / 32	16 / 32	0 / 0
2	Paulo Costa	32 / 57	32 / 57	0 / 0
3	Roman Kopylov	21 / 45	21 / 45	0 / 0
3	Paulo Costa	33 / 48	33 / 48	0 / 2

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Roman Kopylov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12