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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Paulo Costa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1522

Elo1363

Paulo CostavsOluwale BamgboseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Saturday, June 3, 2017Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Paulo Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:06

Model Prediction: Paulo Costa wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paulo Costa at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paulo Costa is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Oluwale Bamgbose has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Paulo Costa has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Oluwale Bamgbose (52.9%).
Oluwale Bamgbose has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Costa

Red Corner

Oluwale Bamgbose

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1522

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22

vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Oluwale BamgboseL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Uriah Hall · Aug 15

KOvs Daniel Sarafian · Feb 16

vs Cezar Ferreira · Apr 16

KOvs Alessio Di Chirico · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo CostaMetricOluwale Bamgbose

6.15

Strikes / min

2.45

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

49%

Strike defense

55%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

0.94

77%

Takedown defense

37%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo CostaOluwale Bamgbose

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Costa(10 fights)Oluwale Bamgbose(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +158.8|Blue -158.8

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -329.0|Blue +329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo CostaTargetOluwale Bamgbose

By target zone

42% acc · 56%

Head

35% acc · 36%

82% acc · 42%

Body

70% acc · 48%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 35%

Distance

41% acc · 58%

63% acc · 35%

Clinch

88% acc · 42%

62% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Costa rounds

even

Oluwale Bamgbose rounds

Round 1Oluwale Bamgbose edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:02

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 2Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:12

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 80

Sig Strikes

33 / 62

52.5%

Sig Str %

55.5%

50 / 88

Total Strikes

40 / 69

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Oluwale Bamgbose	24 / 47	31 / 54	2 / 5
1	Paulo Costa	29 / 53	36 / 61	0 / 1
2	Oluwale Bamgbose	9 / 15	9 / 15	0 / 0
2	Paulo Costa	14 / 27	14 / 27	0 / 0

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Oluwale Bamgbose

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5