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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Marvin Vettori won · U-DEC R5

Elo1522

Elo1467

Paulo CostavsMarvin VettoriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Saturday, October 23, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupPaulo Costa: Pressure fightervsMarvin Vettori: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Paulo Costa wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paulo Costa at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Costa

Red Corner

Marvin Vettori

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1522

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22

vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo CostaMetricMarvin Vettori

6.15

Strikes / min

4.74

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.55

49%

Strike defense

56%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

1.41

77%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo CostaMarvin Vettori

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Costa(10 fights)Marvin Vettori(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.5|Blue -54.5

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +259.0|Blue -259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo CostaTargetMarvin Vettori

By target zone

47% acc · 50%

Head

154

50% acc · 81%

93% acc · 41%

Body

92% acc · 17%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

154

62% acc · 94%

Distance

168

53% acc · 88%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

72% acc · 11%

67% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Costa rounds

even

Marvin Vettori rounds

Round 1Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:24

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 4Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 5Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:23

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

163 / 260

Sig Strikes

190 / 346

62%

Sig Str %

54.6%

172 / 269

Total Strikes

214 / 373

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

3:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marvin Vettori	39 / 68	42 / 71	0 / 0
1	Paulo Costa	35 / 53	35 / 53	0 / 0
2	Marvin Vettori	40 / 80	40 / 80	1 / 1
2	Paulo Costa	36 / 65	36 / 65	0 / 0
3	Marvin Vettori	31 / 55	47 / 74	0 / 0
3	Paulo Costa	17 / 29	19 / 31	1 / 1
4	Marvin Vettori	49 / 81	53 / 85	0 / 1
4	Paulo Costa	30 / 47	32 / 49	0 / 0
5	Paulo Costa	45 / 66	50 / 71	0 / 0
5	Marvin Vettori	31 / 62	32 / 63	0 / 3

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17