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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Paulo Costa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1433

Paulo CostavsLuke RockholdUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Paulo Costa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaulo Costa: Pressure fightervsLuke Rockhold: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Paulo Costa wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paulo Costa at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paulo Costa is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Luke Rockhold has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).
Luke Rockhold has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paulo Costa

Red Corner

Luke Rockhold

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1522

Elo

1433

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paulo CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21

vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Luke RockholdL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 15

KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16

KOvs David Branch · Sep 17

KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paulo CostaMetricLuke Rockhold

6.15

Strikes / min

4.10

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

49%

Strike defense

53%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

0.70

77%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paulo CostaLuke Rockhold

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paulo Costa(10 fights)Luke Rockhold(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.5|Blue -88.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -840.0|Blue +840.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paulo CostaTargetLuke Rockhold

By target zone

61% acc · 51%

Head

57% acc · 45%

85% acc · 45%

Body

92% acc · 45%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

66% acc · 73%

Distance

72% acc · 94%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

89% acc · 23%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paulo Costa rounds

even

Luke Rockhold rounds

Round 1Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control2:48

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:17

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:23

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 103

Sig Strikes

51 / 70

69.7%

Sig Str %

74%

106 / 137

Total Strikes

57 / 78

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 4

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:28

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luke Rockhold	19 / 23	19 / 23	0 / 2
1	Paulo Costa	27 / 34	56 / 64	1 / 1
2	Luke Rockhold	23 / 35	23 / 35	1 / 1
2	Paulo Costa	30 / 42	31 / 43	1 / 1
3	Luke Rockhold	9 / 12	15 / 20	0 / 1
3	Paulo Costa	16 / 27	19 / 30	0 / 0

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11