Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Taylor won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1351

Paul TaylorvsGabe RuedigerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · Saturday, February 5, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paul Taylor won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:42

Style matchupPaul Taylor: Pressure fightervsGabe Ruediger: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Paul Taylor wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Paul Taylor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Taylor at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Taylor is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Gabe Ruediger has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Paul Taylor has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Paul Taylor has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Taylor

Red Corner

Gabe Ruediger

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

178 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul Taylor

oldest →

vs Sam Stout · Oct 10

latest

Gabe Ruediger

oldest →

SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul TaylorMetricGabe Ruediger

4.44

Strikes / min

1.70

4.47

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

55%

Strike defense

41%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

2.04

56%

Takedown defense

28%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03Δ 3.43 — meaningful gap-3.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul TaylorGabe Ruediger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Taylor(2 fights)Gabe Ruediger(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.3|Blue -139.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul TaylorTargetGabe Ruediger

By target zone

57% acc · 84%

Head

26% acc · 59%

100% acc · 8%

Body

71% acc · 29%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

50% acc · 12%

By position

57% acc · 68%

Distance

31% acc · 65%

73% acc · 30%

Clinch

43% acc · 35%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Taylor rounds

even

Gabe Ruediger rounds

Round 1Paul Taylor edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control2:35

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 2Paul Taylor edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:44

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 61

Sig Strikes

17 / 49

60%

Sig Str %

32%

47 / 72

Total Strikes

60 / 95

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 6

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:19

Ctrl Time

1:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabe Ruediger	13 / 33	43 / 65	0 / 3
1	Paul Taylor	23 / 37	29 / 44	0 / 1
2	Gabe Ruediger	4 / 16	17 / 30	0 / 3
2	Paul Taylor	14 / 24	18 / 28	0 / 0

Paul Taylor

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Gabe Ruediger

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2