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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Wiman won · SUB R1

Elo1352

Elo1392

Paul SassvsMatt WimanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · Saturday, September 29, 2012Nottingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Matt Wiman won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:48

Model Prediction: Matt Wiman wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Matt Wiman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Wiman at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Wiman threatens submissions; Paul Sass has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Matt Wiman has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Paul Sass has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Sass

Red Corner

Matt Wiman

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1352

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul Sass

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11

SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12

vs Danny Castillo · Feb 13

latest

Matt WimanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14

KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19

vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul SassMetricMatt Wiman

0.53

Strikes / min

3.17

1.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.57

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

2.13

33%

Takedown defense

56%

7.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.37evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul SassMatt Wiman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Sass(5 fights)Matt Wiman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.4|Blue +40.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul SassTargetMatt Wiman

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

67% acc · 67%

100% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

Distance

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

60% acc · 100%

Ground

67% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Sass rounds

even

Matt Wiman rounds

Round 1Paul Sass edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:56

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

3 / 4

60%

Sig Str %

75%

14 / 19

Total Strikes

7 / 8

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:56

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Wiman	3 / 4	7 / 8	0 / 0	2
1	Paul Sass	6 / 10	14 / 19	1 / 1	0

Paul Sass

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10