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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paul Sass won · SUB R1
Elo1352
Paul Sass
Elo1351

Paul SassvsMark HolstUFC Prediction Result

UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · Saturday, October 16, 2010London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paul Sass won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:45

Model Prediction: Mark Holst wins(82.2%)

Actual result: Paul Sass wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Holst at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Paul Sass threatens submissions; Mark Holst has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Mark Holst has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Sass
Red Corner
VS
Mark Holst
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1352
Elo
1351
37
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
190 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul SassL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11
W
SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12
L
SUBvs Matt Wiman · Sep 12
L
vs Danny Castillo · Feb 13
latest
Mark Holst
oldest →
L
vs John Gunderson · Jun 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul SassMetricMark Holst
0.53
Strikes / min
0.25
1.90
Strikes absorbed / min
1.67
51%
Strike defense
47%
0.53
TDs / 15 min
0.76
33%
Takedown defense
60%
7.40
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.37evenly matched on net striking-1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1482Strikes— vs 2.0Takedowns— vs 1.0Sub Atts— vs 3.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Paul SassMark Holst

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Paul Sass(5 fights)Mark Holst(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul SassTargetMark Holst

By target zone

1
33% acc · 50%
Head
1
13% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 50%
Body
1
100% acc · 33%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 33%

By position

2
50% acc · 100%
Distance
1
13% acc · 33%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Paul Sass rounds
0
even
1
Mark Holst rounds
Round 1Mark Holst edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:19Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 4
Sig Strikes
3 / 10
50%
Sig Str %
30%
11 / 15
Total Strikes
7 / 14
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
4
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
3:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mark Holst3 / 107 / 140 / 00
1Paul Sass2 / 411 / 150 / 24

Paul Sass

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5

Mark Holst

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2