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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Danny Castillo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1356

Paul SassvsDanny CastilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · Saturday, February 16, 2013London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Danny Castillo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at -103 American odds

+$97 profit

$197 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Danny Castillo has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Sass

Red Corner

Danny Castillo

Blue Corner

-107

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-103

(51%)

1352

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul Sass

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11

SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12

SUBvs Matt Wiman · Sep 12

latest

Danny CastilloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul SassMetricDanny Castillo

0.53

Strikes / min

2.57

1.90

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

51%

Strike defense

62%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

2.95

33%

Takedown defense

63%

7.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.37Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul SassDanny Castillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Sass(5 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.9|Blue +3.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul SassTargetDanny Castillo

By target zone

10% acc · 50%

Head

55% acc · 92%

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 3%

50% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

17% acc · 100%

Distance

14% acc · 3%

Clinch

Ground

62% acc · 97%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Sass rounds

even

Danny Castillo rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:28Control

Round 2Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:16Control

Round 3Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 23

Sig Strikes

38 / 67

11.7%

Sig Str %

56.3%

23 / 47

Total Strikes

67 / 104

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 6

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

12:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Castillo	11 / 23	17 / 34	1 / 2	0
1	Paul Sass	0 / 2	5 / 8	0 / 0	4
2	Danny Castillo	18 / 29	30 / 43	2 / 2	0
2	Paul Sass	1 / 7	9 / 18	0 / 0	1
3	Danny Castillo	9 / 15	20 / 27	1 / 2	0
3	Paul Sass	3 / 14	9 / 21	0 / 0	0

Paul Sass

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14