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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · S-DEC
Elo1392
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos

Paul FeldervsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, November 14, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

S-DEC

Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Dos Anjos at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Rafael Dos Anjos has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paul Felder
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Dos Anjos
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1392
Elo
1491
42
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul Felder
oldest →
W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 17
L
vs Mike Perry · Jul 18
W
vs James Vick · Feb 19
W
vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19
L
vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20
latest
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul FelderMetricRafael Dos Anjos
3.70
Strikes / min
3.48
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
48%
Strike defense
60%
0.29
TDs / 15 min
1.95
64%
Takedown defense
54%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1579 vs 1604Strikes3.7 vs 3.5Takedowns0.3 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.60Form0.0 vs -0.5
Paul FelderRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Paul Felder(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -98.9|Blue +98.9
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul FelderTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

64
44% acc · 65%
Head
53
47% acc · 58%
20
69% acc · 20%
Body
35
78% acc · 38%
14
100% acc · 14%
Leg
4
100% acc · 4%

By position

76
47% acc · 78%
Distance
61
49% acc · 66%
21
75% acc · 21%
Clinch
26
90% acc · 28%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
5
63% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Paul Felder rounds
0
even
4
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:13
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:06Control
Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:43Control
Round 3Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:38
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:17Control
Round 4Paul Felder edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:49
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:54Control
Round 5Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
98 / 190
Sig Strikes
92 / 162
52.8%
Sig Str %
57.8%
134 / 226
Total Strikes
155 / 231
1 / 2
TDs
6 / 22
50%
TD %
25.6%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:40
Ctrl Time
14:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rafael Dos Anjos22 / 3427 / 411 / 40
1Paul Felder17 / 4517 / 450 / 10
2Rafael Dos Anjos27 / 4731 / 511 / 40
2Paul Felder29 / 4635 / 520 / 00
3Rafael Dos Anjos13 / 1828 / 352 / 40
3Paul Felder12 / 2121 / 300 / 00
4Paul Felder26 / 5539 / 681 / 10
4Rafael Dos Anjos19 / 4134 / 570 / 30
5Rafael Dos Anjos11 / 2235 / 472 / 70
5Paul Felder14 / 2322 / 310 / 00

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32