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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Mike Perry won · S-DEC R3
Elo1392
Elo1399
Mike Perry

Paul FeldervsMike PerryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Saturday, July 7, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Perry won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaul Felder: StrikervsMike Perry: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Mike Perry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Paul Felder
Red Corner
VS
Mike Perry
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1392
Elo
1399
42
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul FelderL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 17
W
vs James Vick · Feb 19
W
vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19
L
vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20
L
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20
latest
Mike PerryL2 streak
oldest →
L
DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19
W
vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20
L
vs Tim Means · Nov 20
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul FelderMetricMike Perry
3.70
Strikes / min
4.32
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
5.16
48%
Strike defense
52%
0.29
TDs / 15 min
0.81
64%
Takedown defense
78%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1579 vs 1518Strikes38.8 vs 41.6Takedowns0.3 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form0.8 vs -0.3
Paul FelderMike Perry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Paul Felder(10 fights)Mike Perry(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -7.1|Blue +7.1
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul FelderTargetMike Perry

By target zone

27
34% acc · 48%
Head
34
44% acc · 55%
16
67% acc · 29%
Body
15
83% acc · 24%
13
76% acc · 23%
Leg
13
93% acc · 21%

By position

48
44% acc · 86%
Distance
42
49% acc · 68%
7
78% acc · 13%
Clinch
17
81% acc · 27%
1
100% acc · 2%
Ground
3
100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Paul Felder rounds
2
even
1
Mike Perry rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:45
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Round 2Mike Perry edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:41Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
56 / 120
Sig Strikes
62 / 110
45.3%
Sig Str %
59.7%
64 / 128
Total Strikes
66 / 114
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 3
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:45
Ctrl Time
3:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mike Perry23 / 4424 / 450 / 00
1Paul Felder22 / 4127 / 460 / 10
2Mike Perry17 / 2218 / 232 / 20
2Paul Felder12 / 3412 / 340 / 00
3Mike Perry22 / 4424 / 460 / 10
3Paul Felder22 / 4525 / 480 / 00

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15